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Abstract
The long-term thermal performance of residential buildings, as well as the thermal comfort of their occupants, is strongly dependent on external climatic conditions. In this context, this study investigates the evolution of thermal comfort in a representative residential dwelling located in Marrakech under current (2020) and future climate conditions (2050 and 2080) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Dynamic simulations were conducted using EnergyPlus under free-running conditions to isolate envelope-related thermal behaviour. Five envelope configurations were evaluated: a reference case without thermal efficiency measures, a configuration incorporating expanded polystyrene (EPS) insulation, a configuration using double low-emissivity tinted glazing (6/13/6), a phase change material (PCM) configuration, and a combined strategy integrating multiple passive measures. Each configuration was assessed under three air infiltration rates (0, 1.5, and 2.2 ACH), with thermal comfort analysed at both building and room scales, resulting in a simulation matrix of 135 configurations. Results show a clear shift from a mixed discomfort regime, where both underheating and overheating occur, toward conditions increasingly dominated by overheating. In the baseline case (reference envelope, 1.5 ACH), overheating-related discomfort rises from 36% of annual hours in 2020 to 51% in 2080, largely driven by extreme overheating events. Envelope strategies show contrasting performance: insulation improves winter comfort but promotes heat retention under warmer climates; glazing reduces peak overheating in solar-exposed spaces; and phase change materials provide limited benefit due to insufficient night cooling. The combined strategy performs best, reducing extreme overheating by up to 986 h/year, although its effectiveness declines under late-century conditions. Room-level analysis further reveals substantial spatial variability, with highly exposed rooms experiencing overheating levels more than 30% above whole-building estimates. These findings highlight the need for integrated passive design strategies that account for airtightness, spatial variability, and future climate conditions.
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article Type: Research Article
EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES, Volume 10, Issue 4, 2026, Article No: em0429
https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19112
Publication date: 01 Oct 2026
Online publication date: 10 Aug 2026
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