Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec

Olfa Berrich; Halim Dabbou; Moktar Lamari

doi:10.29333/ejosdr/19150

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Olfa Berrich ¹ ^* , Halim Dabbou ² , Moktar Lamari ¹

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¹ École Nationale d'administration Publique (ENAP), Québec, CANADA² Université de Hearst, Ontario, CANADA^* Corresponding Author

Abstract

This paper investigates how climate-related disruptions influence cost overruns in Québec, using an administrative dataset of 3,134 transport construction projects delivered between 2014 and 2021. Rather than treating cost overrun as a single metric, we develop three complementary measures aligned with key stages of the project cycle: the gap between the engineer’s estimate and the awarded contract price, the difference between final costs and the contract price, and the lifecycle overrun relative to the initial estimate. This approach allows us to pinpoint when cost pressures emerge. The results show that winter climatic exposure proxy during execution significantly increases post-award and lifecycle overruns but is not priced at the bidding stage. Project type, project size, geographical location, and the number of bidders also systematically drive cost growth. Generalized Moment Method and Logit models confirm the robustness of these findings, highlighting the need for climate-responsive budgeting, bid screening, and contract design.

Keywords

bad weather
transport
Quebec
cost overruns
project cycle
construction project

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Research Article

EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES, Volume 10, Issue 4, 2026, Article No: em0432

https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

Publication date: 01 Oct 2026

Online publication date: 15 Aug 2026

Article Views: 8

Article Downloads: 2

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How to cite this article

APA

Berrich, O., Dabbou, H., & Lamari, M. (2026). Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 10(4), em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

Vancouver

Berrich O, Dabbou H, Lamari M. Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec. EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES. 2026;10(4):em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

AMA

Berrich O, Dabbou H, Lamari M. Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec. EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES. 2026;10(4), em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

Chicago

Berrich, Olfa, Halim Dabbou, and Moktar Lamari. "Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec". European Journal of Sustainable Development Research 2026 10 no. 4 (2026): em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

Harvard

Berrich, O., Dabbou, H., and Lamari, M. (2026). Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 10(4), em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150

MLA

Berrich, Olfa et al. "Climate exposure and cost overruns in transport infrastructure across bidding, construction, and delivery in Québec". European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, vol. 10, no. 4, 2026, em0432. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/19150