European Journal of Sustainable Development Research

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria
Mohamed Lounis 1 * , Juarez dos Santos Azevedo 2
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1 Department of Agro-veterinary Science, Faculty of Natural and Life Sciences, University of Ziane Achour, BP 3117, Road of Moudjbara, Djelfa 17000, ALGERIA
2 Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Institute of Sciences, Technology and Innovation, Centro, 42802-721, Camaçari-BA, BRAZIL
* Corresponding Author
Research Article

European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 2021 - Volume 5 Issue 1, Article No: em0150
https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675

Published Online: 03 Feb 2021

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How to cite this article
APA 6th edition
In-text citation: (Lounis & dos Santos Azevedo, 2021)
Reference: Lounis, M., & dos Santos Azevedo, J. (2021). Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 5(1), em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
Vancouver
In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Lounis M, dos Santos Azevedo J. Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria. EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES. 2021;5(1):em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
AMA 10th edition
In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Lounis M, dos Santos Azevedo J. Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria. EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES. 2021;5(1), em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
Chicago
In-text citation: (Lounis and dos Santos Azevedo, 2021)
Reference: Lounis, Mohamed, and Juarez dos Santos Azevedo. "Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria". European Journal of Sustainable Development Research 2021 5 no. 1 (2021): em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
Harvard
In-text citation: (Lounis and dos Santos Azevedo, 2021)
Reference: Lounis, M., and dos Santos Azevedo, J. (2021). Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 5(1), em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
MLA
In-text citation: (Lounis and dos Santos Azevedo, 2021)
Reference: Lounis, Mohamed et al. "Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria". European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, vol. 5, no. 1, 2021, em0150. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/9675
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported in Wuhan is continuing to impress the world by its fast spread and the number of affected persons attracting an unprecedented attention.
In this article, the classical SEIR model and a generalized SEIR model called SEIRDP were applied to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in Algeria for a future period of 100 days using official reported data from early April to early August, 2020. Initial evaluation showed that the two models had a net correspondence with the reported data during this period for cumulative infected cases but the number of cumulative deaths was underestimated with the classical SEIR model. Model prediction with the SEIRDP concluded that the number of cumulative infected cases will increase in the next days reaching a number of about 60 k in middle November with a median of about 300 daily cases. Also, the number of estimated deaths will be around 2k. These results suggest that the COVID-19 is ongoing to infect more persons which may push national authorities to carefully act in the probable leaving of containment.
KEYWORDS
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